DETERMINANTS OF BANK’S SHARES RATES OF RETURN DURING COVID-19. THE EVIDENCE FROM VISEGRAD GROUP STOCK EXCHANGES

Аннотация

COVID-19 is a pandemic with unprecedented historical impact on the economy, the banking sector and the financial system. Restrictions introduced administratively overnight have deprived entire sectors of the economy of sources of income, raising questions about the necessary scope of state support, the ability of enterprises to survive, the level of unemployment and the condition of the banking sector. Compared to some Western European countries (Italy, Spain) and the United States, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are coping with the pandemic relatively well, and yet the collapse of stock exchange indices is observed, and the scale of the decline in the market value of banks is even deeper. The subject of this study is the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the share prices of banks listed on stock exchanges in the Visegrad Group countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary). The capitalisation of stock exchange banks in these countries in the period from 01.01.2020 to 18.05.2020 decreased more than the capitalisation of the stock exchanges on which the banks' shares are listed (Table 5). Only in the case of Hungary did the scale of the decline turn out to be comparable. Based on a sample of 19 commercial banks which shares are listed on stock exchanges and with reference to the period from the beginning of 2020 to 18 May 2020, a linear regression model was created, in which TCR and C/I turned out to be important independent variables, having a key impact on the volatility of bank share prices during the pandemic. This means relatively greater resilience to the crisis of well-capitalised banks, i. e. those that can afford to consume capital during the crisis as well as highly efficient banks compared to the whole banking sector.