TY - JOUR AU - Geraschenko I.P., AU - Кuldiaeva Аngelina Аlexandrovna, AU - Duss Jury Petrovich, AU - Stephan Dyrka, AU - Seitakhmetova N.L., PY - 2020/08/14 Y2 - 2024/03/28 TI - FORECAST OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE GLOBAL E-COMMERCE MARKET JF - Научный журнал «Вестник НАН РК» JA - ВНР VL - IS - 4 SE - Статьи DO - UR - https://journals.nauka-nanrk.kz/bulletin-science/article/view/596 SP - 157-164 AB - <p>Theoretical analysis of the concept of “e-commerce” was carried out. Based on the adaptive brown<br>models of the first and second orders, the Holt linear exponential smoothing model, and the Box-Jenkins model, the<br>forecast of the world e-commerce market volumes for 2020-2022 was constructed. The reliability and adequacy of<br>the forecast models were evaluated. The basic, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the development of the global<br>e-commerce market for 2020-2022 are highlighted and described. According to the basic development scenario, the<br>market is expected to continue its active growth at the level of 18.4 ± 3.5% per year until 2022. At the same time,<br>there is a tendency to decrease the growth rate from 19.61% in 2020 to 17.21% in 2022, due to the geographical<br>change in the growth trend of Internet penetration from developed countries to low-income countries in Africa. The<br>analytical dependence of the e-commerce influence on the growth of the world economy is constructed, which<br>shows, that the increase in the volume of the world e-commerce market by $ 1 billion increases global GDP by<br>$ 4.99 billion. Based on the constructed model of the relationship between global GDP and the volume of the global<br>e-commerce market, the forecast of global GDP growth in 2020-2022 by 4.0 ± 1.0% annually is constructed. The<br>increase in the share of the e-commerce market in global GDP in 2022 compared to 2019 is projected at 47.5%.</p> ER -